CSP, September 30, 2024: Battered by Headlines, Oil Displays Some Inertia Downstreamers lose, consumers gain

CSP, September 16, 2024: Led by Crude Oil and Weak U.S. Employment, Gasoline Price Crash Continues Retail diesel fuel prices also have been dropping

CSP, August 26, 2024: Pump Price Help for Motorists, With Summer Ending Soon Retail margin improves

CSP, August 12, 2024: Gasoline Market (Relative) Stability Pump price is 37 cents discount to 1 year ago

CSP, July 29, 2024: Pump Price Down 3 Cents Due to Oil Decline Downed Midwest refinery shook gasoline prices

CSP, July 15, 2024: Oil, Beryl and Swelling Business Costs Retail gasoline price hike is the first since mid-April

CSP, September 30, 2024: Battered by Headlines, Oil Displays Some Inertia Downstreamers lose, consumers gain September 30, 2024 CSPDailyNews.com Article: Retail prices of both gasoline and diesel fuel have been dropping for 11 weeks now, and they have continued to decline in the past two weeks. Each is a deep discount to its year-ago level. Regular-grade gasoline shed a further 2.03 cents per gallon (CPG) in the past two weeks, to $3.28 a gallon, according to the most recent Lundberg Survey of U.S. fuel markets. It is down 33.24 cents since July 12. And this price represents a big 70.6-cent price cut under what it was a year ago. The U.S. average retail diesel price sopped 4.46 cents in the past two weeks, to $3.6793. It has declined 29.01 cents over the past 11 weeks. And the year-ago comparison is very favorable, with the current price a full dollar per gallon below its year-ago level, a boon for virtually all transporters and consumers of goods across the U.S. economy. When oil prices do not seem to change much, to a degree that is an illusion, and they are changing all day long day after day. In this case, on Sept. 27, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed within a mere 47 cents per barrel of its Sept. 13 price, in this case a decline. Notwithstanding heated headlines from around the world including Hurricane Helene, Middle East warfare, stagnating China petroleum demand, and OPEC’s official decision to hike production starting in December, crude oil prices are not, apparently, telling gasoline prices to surge or to crash. If none of the many powerful oil price determinants take over and determine a big change in oil prices, then dramatic moves in U.S. gasoline prices won’t be likely short term. Demand is falling seasonally and year-on-year growth looks tepid at best. We may see a few more pennies decline in the national average, or none, as the myriad price factors evolve and fall into place. The decision by OPEC+ to bump up production starting December 1 comes with caveats and some participating nations will be cutting output to offset their earlier over-production beyond agreed volumes. As for now tropical storm Helene, we note that behind the nation’s 2-CPG. pump price drop, the biggest declines were in the U.S. Gulf Coast region. In these two weeks, refiners lost a very small bit of gasoline margin and remain in tough straits. Retailers nationally lost 0.68 CPG, with margin now at 40.52 cents on regular grade. Here are three markets where gasoline margin suffered and three where it fared well: In Chicago, retailers got hosed: Wholesale took a flying leap while retail lagged, costing retailers 20.83 cents in regular grade margin. Chicago’s Sept. 27 average margin of 34.83 CPG is grossly inferior to norms in that market. Lots of pain in St. Louis, with the Lundberg snapshot of Sept. 27 showing a loss of 20.47 cents in margin. And Baton Rouge, already slim on Sept. 13, lost a further 9.98 cents to just 27.39 cents two weeks later. There looked to be a margin festival in the San Francisco Bay Area, if only a fleeting one, as margin swelled 36.33 cents to 83.32 CPG, thanks to a wholesale price crash caused by the resolution of a refining glitch. In contrast, margin in California’s other main market, Los Angeles, is just 47.29 cents. Miami retailers gained a little as the average wholesale price cut exceeded that at retail, awarding 1.62 cents more per gallon. Margin currently averages 42.08 cents, a dramatic recovery from the unfavorably low 19.48 cents on August 9. Seattle bounced nicely, with an improvement of 19.93 cents in regular-grade margin to $1.00.00 per gallon for the moment. Click here for previous Lundberg Survey reports in CSP Daily News. Trilby Lundberg is publisher of the Lundberg Survey of U.S. fuel markets. Lundberg Survey Inc. is based in Camarillo, California. Issue Date:

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