Lundberg in CSPdailynews.com
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CSP, Mar. 31, 2026: U.S. gasoline prices rise another 46 cents April may see another $1 or more in price hikes if oil prices rise further: Lundberg
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CSP, March 16, 2026: U.S. gasoline prices surge 57.8 cents amid Middle East oil crisis, with more hikes expected National average hits $3.599 per gallon as supply disruptions and crude oil price spikes drive potential increases of up to 50 cents
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CSP, Feb. 23, 2026: U.S. gasoline price rises another 6 cents March may see dramatic price surge: Lundberg
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CSP, Feb 10, 2026: Retail gasoline price up 6 cents Oil market and gasoline costs point to more price hikes: Lundberg
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CSP, Jan. 26, 2026: Retail gasoline price bottoms, rises a penny Oil market pressures suggest more price hikes: Lundberg
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CSP, Jan. 12, 2026: Gasoline prices drop nearly 10 cents, oil supply risks loom National average falls to $2.89 per gallon, but geopolitical tensions and rising crude prices could reverse the trend: Lundberg
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CSP, Mar. 31, 2026: U.S. gasoline prices rise another 46 cents April may see another $1 or more in price hikes if oil prices rise further: Lundberg
March 31, 2026 CSPDailyNews.com Article:
April may see another $1 or more in price hikes if oil prices rise further instead of retreating.
The national average retail price of regular grade gasoline leaped a further 45.9 cents in the past
two weeks. The current price is $4.058 per gallon—that’s 90 cents higher than it was one year ago.
From here, it is not unreasonable to expect the U.S. pump price to surge an
additional $1.19 per gallon, reaching $5.25 per gallon in coming weeks.
The overwhelming cause is higher oil and refined product prices, four weeks into the Iran war, with global
petroleum supply shortfalls becoming more acute. Continued stoppage of oil transport through the
Strait of Hormuz and damage to petroleum and related facilities throughout the Middle East, plus shut-in oil
production capacity such as Iraq is currently suffering, are creating great hardship globally.
A very small gasoline price rise contribution is coming from the ongoing shift to spring-summer
reformulations designed to reduce the creation of smog, adding cost to refining.
Price projectionists around the world are redrawing their expectations continually, and the short- and
medium-term pictures are for more price hikes. Even when a reduction of demand as consumers shrink from
price is taken into account, an oil price of $150 per barrel is lower than the $200-plus per barrel expected by some
banks and various industry experts.
A further oil price surge to $150 per barrel would simplistically add $1.19 per gallon to the price
of gasoline. That would bring the gasoline price to $5.25 per gallon.
Measures taken in the U.S. and around the world are impressive and welcomed by consumers. This includes:
- The waiver of vapor pressure rules for E-85 and the Jones Act.
- Gasoline tax holidays like Georgia has enacted to last two months.
- Releases of volumes from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve by the U.S. and some other nations.
- Eased U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan and Russian oil at sea.
However, the combined volumes are small considering the global supply crisis.
Currently, U.S. downstream gasoline margins are in healthy territory.
Both refiners and retailers have gained gasoline margin, at least for now. U.S. gasoline retailers had been on a roller coaster
ride as to margin, suffering a huge drop of 16.5 cents per gallon in the three weeks Feb. 16-March 8, but thereafter
garnering 25.2 cents more in the past two weeks, achieving a margin of 43 cents per gallon on March 29.
Trilby Lundberg is publisher of the Lundberg Survey of U.S. fuel markets. Lundberg Survey Inc. is based in Camarillo, California.
Click here for previous Lundberg Survey reports in CSP Daily News.
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Tel:(805)383-2400 Email:lsi@lundbergsurvey.com Fax:(805)383-2424
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