CSP, March 16, 2026: U.S. gasoline prices surge 57.8 cents amid Middle East oil crisis, with more hikes expected National average hits $3.599 per gallon as supply disruptions and crude oil price spikes drive potential increases of up to 50 cents

CSP, Feb. 23, 2026: U.S. gasoline price rises another 6 cents March may see dramatic price surge: Lundberg

CSP, Feb 10, 2026: Retail gasoline price up 6 cents Oil market and gasoline costs point to more price hikes: Lundberg

CSP, Jan. 26, 2026: Retail gasoline price bottoms, rises a penny Oil market pressures suggest more price hikes: Lundberg

CSP, Jan. 12, 2026: Gasoline prices drop nearly 10 cents, oil supply risks loom National average falls to $2.89 per gallon, but geopolitical tensions and rising crude prices could reverse the trend: Lundberg

CSP, Dec. 10, 2025: Pump price down 8 cents Motorists don't see gasoline prices as low enough: Lundberg

CSP, March 16, 2026: U.S. gasoline prices surge 57.8 cents amid Middle East oil crisis, with more hikes expected National average hits $3.599 per gallon as supply disruptions and crude oil price spikes drive potential increases of up to 50 cents March 16, 2026 CSPDailyNews.com Article: The average retail gasoline price leaped 57.8 cents per gallon in the past three weeks to $3.599. Further pump price hikes may well occur very soon, perhaps in the range of 25-50 cents per gallon. The current price is 42 cents higher than it was a year ago. Pump prices were already rising from early January through mid-February, a total rise of about 13 cents per gallon. At that time, Lundberg expected more pump price hikes of around 10-25 cents resulting from existing U.S. gasoline market dynamics, including California's shutting two major refineries, affecting the whole nation to a degree. Now, gasoline prices are skyrocketing due to the Middle East oil supply crisis. It is day 16 since the U.S. and Israel began bombing Iran. New possible changes in global petroleum supply and price are continuously emerging. A strong possibility is that even if the Strait of Hormuz traffic stoppage, affecting a fifth of global petroleum supply, were to be largely resolved within weeks, damage already inflicted upon regional oil industry production, transportation, refining and delivery may take far longer to return to normalcy. Even international releases of Strategic Petroleum Reserves (the world's largest supply of emergency crude oil) being finite and limited to perhaps three to four months, cannot reverse the oil supply deficit and price surge. At best they can for a limited time keep hikes somewhat less acute than they otherwise would be. Crude oil price hikes have not fully materialized downstream: West Texas Intermediate's near-month futures contract price rose $32.13 per barrel in the past three weeks to $98.52. This translates to a rise of 76.5 cents per gallon, some 19 cents more than what the retail gasoline price has just done. On top of that, there is pent-up retail margin recovery that would hike the retail price: Retail gasoline margin shrank by 16.3 cents per gallon in the past three weeks. Although it is a tough time for retailers to pass that through due to motorist "sticker shock" inhibiting demand, they must soon attempt some recovery from this acute margin loss. If that retail margin recovery occurs in full and were added to the existing portion of oil price hikes not yet passed through, it would mean a further 35 cents jump at the pump. Ultimately the chief mover and shaker of gasoline price is the oil price, and if oil prices move still higher from here, the impact on gasoline prices may well exceed our simple calculation of 35 cents waiting in the wings. In fact, gasoline price increases may exceed 50 cents a gallon in the near future. In the past three weeks, the national average rise in the average unbranded rack price of regular gasoline was more than 84 cents per gallon. Lundberg found that for Petroleum Defense District 3, home to the country's main refining center on the Gulf Coast, unbranded rack skyrocketed up 94.54 cents to $2.8242 per gallon. Click here for previous Lundberg Survey reports in CSP Daily News. Trilby Lundberg is publisher of the Lundberg Survey of U.S. fuel markets. Lundberg Survey Inc. is based in Camarillo, California.

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